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Connecticut dad jumped to his death during concert at Madison Square Garden in NYC: report
A Connecticut man jumped to his death at a concert over the weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York, with witnesses telling authorities that he appeared to be "intoxicated," according to a report.
Paul Kueker, 51, a father of two, was celebrating his 25th wedding anniversary with his wife at Saturday’s Goose concert when he was captured on video falling head-first from a balcony in the 300s section and landed on other concertgoers below, according to the New York Post.
Kueker appeared to be "intoxicated" and "under the influence" before going over the 4-foot glass barrier shortly before 10 p.m., law-enforcement sources told the outlet, citing witnesses.
The man was unconscious and unresponsive after hitting the ground, police said.
COUNTRY SINGER GAVIN ADCOCK’S SHOW ERUPTS AS FAN STORMS STAGE, GETS TACKLED
He was then rushed to Bellevue Hospital, where he was pronounced dead.
Several people he landed on suffered minor injuries, other sources told the outlet.
Kueker's wife was by their assigned seats three sections away when the incident occurred, sources told the New York Post.
She was unaware of what happened to her husband until she was notified by authorities, according to the report. She thought her husband had taken a bathroom break.
New York City's medical examiner’s office said on Monday that the cause of Kueker’s death remains under investigation. As part of the probe into the incident, the medical examiner said it was conducting a toxicology report.
In a statement to Fox News Digital, Madison Square Garden said, "While we await the police report on the tragedy at last night’s Goose concert, we are deeply saddened by the loss of a fan’s life at Madison Square Garden."
"Our hearts go out to the family and friends of the concertgoer," the statement added.
The rock band, which consists of Rick Mitarotonda, Trevor Weekz, Peter Anspach and Cotter Ellis, released a statement shortly after the incident, extending their condolences to the victim’s family and loved ones.
"We are deeply saddened and heartbroken to learn of the tragic event that occurred at tonight’s show," the band said. "We extend our deepest sympathy to everyone affected. Thank you to the emergency personnel and venue staff who stepped in with care and support."
According to a GoFundMe page created by his daughter, Kueker was "a loving father, family man, and friend whose presence brought warmth and laughter wherever he went."
"He loved spending time with his family and cherished every moment he shared with the people he loved. Whether he was cooking a meal for those around him or attending a concert to enjoy live music, he found joy in life’s simple moments and creating memories with others," the fundraiser reads.
"The sudden loss of our dad has left our family heartbroken. We are struggling to process this unimaginable tragedy while facing the expenses that come with laying him to rest," it added.
Democrats' new-wave socialists are winning primaries but face a harsh reality in general elections
The Democrats are lurching to the left.
And having a fine time doing it.
Socialism is no longer a dirty word.
In fact, it's becoming the party’s calling card.
MAMDANI'S POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE ROCKS DEMOCRATS, DIVIDING PARTY ON PATH FORWARD
The atmosphere changed when Zohran Mamdani came out of nowhere to trounce Andrew Cuomo and wind up in New York's Gracie Mansion.
Not only is he the city's first Muslim mayor and anti-Israel, but he is a self-proclaimed socialist.
Here's the problem: While that might be an asset in blue cities, it's a huge albatross in a national or statewide election.
DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST MAYORAL NOMINEE CREATES GROWING HEADACHE FOR VULNERABLE NEW YORK DEMOCRATS
Most voters in these contests are not willing to march under the socialist banner.
In these broader elections, what helps in a Democratic primary is a poison pill.
So how did this come about?
THE FAR LEFT HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY PLATFORM, AND IT’S TURNING VOTERS OFF
Turns out that liberal and independent voters are fed up with the Democratic establishment. They feel it's a party of elitists playing the same old rhetorical game and not delivering for the working class. They resent the empty promises and the obsession with pronouns, "pregnant people" and trans men playing women's sports. They feel abandoned.
But in intra-party contests, the secret ingredient seems to be charisma. Mamdani won over New Yorkers by campaigning his heart out.
After promising such benefits as free buses and government-run grocery stores, he has run smack into reality, where he needs help from Albany to achieve even a fraction of his goals.
And while Mamdani made no secret of being anti-Israel and tried to mend fences with Jewish voters, he worked against Democratic incumbents in pushing pro-Palestinian candidates for Congress.
He's not alone. In Washington, voters elected Janeese Lewis George, who is also a proud socialist. (Winning the Democratic primary here is tantamount to election.) She promised government help for child care and tougher regulation of utilities. So D.C. has its own Mamdani.
And Seattle elected as mayor Katie Wilson, co-founder of the Transit Riders Union. She promised affordable housing, reduced homelessness and to "Trump-proof Seattle," especially on being a sanctuary city.
FETTERMAN CALLS OUT 'ABSOLUTE SOCIALIST' SEATTLE MAYOR AND 'AVOWED COMMUNIST' GRAHAM PLATNER
AOC was the first ultra-liberal to capitalize on this, defeating a longtime incumbent and now so famous from social media that she's flirting with a presidential run.
Another case study is Maine's Graham Platner, a Marine veteran who has survived a series of scandals (Nazi tattoo, sexting other women) that would have knocked out most candidates. In the primary, he trounced the state's 78-year-old governor, and many liberals are willing to overlook his admittedly checkered past.
Platner has acknowledged having problems with alcohol, PTSD, and being a bad boyfriend after returning from Iraq and Afghanistan.
LEFT, LEFTER AND LEFTIST: DEMOCRATS COULD BE DEFINED BY RADICAL, BIG CITY MAYORS
The defining characteristics of these new-wave socialists: They tend to be younger and generate excitement on the trail.
The MAGA coalition has been broader, at least until the Iran war, soaring prices and the never-ending warfare over the Jeffrey Epstein files.
But that required Donald Trump first getting elected and then bending the Republican Party to his will. His retribution against GOP candidates who defied him, knocking them off in primaries, has sent an unmistakable message to Republicans that dissent leads to political death.
But it's hard to see the capital-S socialists prevailing in a general election. Most voters still recoil from anything that reeks of socialism, however well it may play in New York, Washington and Seattle.
The Dems are leaderless at the moment, though that may change after the midterms. But for now, the new-wave socialists look to be clobbered in almost any general election contest. Even given Trump's current unpopularity, they can swim in blue waters but not in the larger green ocean of voters who head the other way from the turbulent tide of socialism.
Coast Guard helicopter crashes during Alaska training mission, injuring four crew members
A Coast Guard helicopter crashed during a routine training flight in southeast Alaska on Monday, injuring four crew members on board, according to officials.
The MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crashed outside Sitka, Alaska, in a sparsely populated area near Harbor Mountain, the Coast Guard announced in a press release.
Watch standers at the Arctic District command center received the report of the crash shortly after 10 a.m.
TEXAS PLANE CRASH LEAVES ONE DEAD, MORE INJURED AFTER BUSINESS JET CATCHES FIRE ON HIGHWAY
Rescue crews from Sitka Fire and Rescue responded to the scene at around 11 a.m. and transported all four injured crew members to Mt. Edgecumbe Medical Center for treatment.
No deaths were reported in connection with the crash.
"We are incredibly relieved our crew members survived with only minor injuries," Rear Adm. Bob Little, commander of the Coast Guard’s Arctic District, said in a statement.
It is unclear what caused the crash. The incident remains under investigation.
The Coast Guard crash comes after multiple other aircraft collisions this month.
A business jet crashed on a highway in Laredo, Texas, on Tuesday night, killing one person.
11 SKYDIVERS, ONE PILOT KILLED IN MISSOURI PLANE CRASH NEAR AIRPORT
A B-52 crashed on June 15 during a test flight at Edwards Air Force Base in California, killing all eight people aboard.
The day before, 12 people were killed when a plane on a skydiving outing in Missouri crashed.
Giannis Antetokounmpo era to end in Milwaukee as Bucks will send two-time MVP to Miami Heat for young core
The Milwaukee Bucks are trading two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and forward Bobby Portis to the Miami Heat, closing the book on a historic run that delivered Milwaukee its first NBA title in 50 years.
Per ESPN's Shams Charania, Miami will acquire Antetokounmpo and Portis in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis, along with three future first-round picks, the No. 13 pick in Tuesday's draft, a future pick swap and a second-round pick.
The Boston Celtics and Heat gained steam as the leading suitors in the Giannis sweepstakes on the eve of the NBA Draft.
The trade comes after years of uncertainty surrounding Milwaukee's direction following the departure of championship-winning head coach Mike Budenholzer in 2023 and caps a steady decline that culminated in the Bucks missing the 2026 playoffs.
BUCKS APPEAR WILLING TO HEAR OFFERS FOR GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO: REPORT
Antetokounmpo, 31, delivered the franchise's first championship in 50 years in 2021 and cemented his place among the greatest players in team history. He was named one of the NBA's top 75 players ever and is a two time MVP and was MVP of the Finals.
But after several disappointing post-title seasons and an injury-plagued 2025-26 campaign, the Bucks chose to pivot toward the future. The team sidelined Giannis against his wishes toward the end of the season.
Rather than remain tied to an expensive roster with limited flexibility, Milwaukee capitalized on Antetokounmpo's value.
Miami emerged from a crowded field of suitors to land one of the league's biggest stars, signaling Riley's continued willingness to sacrifice future assets in pursuit of another title. And Heat president Pat Riley finally landed the franchise cornerstone he has pursued for years.
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Caitlin Clark scores 24 to lead Indiana as DeWanna Bonner clashes with Fever stars in wild fourth quarter
The Indiana Fever beat the Phoenix Mercury 86-77 on Monday night, but what stood out most was the bad blood between the two squads. Lost amid the chaos was another dominant performance from Caitlin Clark, who finished with 24 points and nine assists to help Indiana secure the win.
With seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, Clark and Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner got locked up on a physical possession.
Bad blood instantly boiled over.
WATCH:
Clark stood her ground, the two exchanged words, and officials hit Clark with her fifth technical foul of the season.
Clark and Bonner famously got into it during a physical postseason clash in 2024, including shoves and swipes.
MERCURY STAR RIPS FEVER FANS FOR BOOING DEWANNA BONNER, WHO BAILED ON TEAM AFTER 9 GAMES
Add Bonner's brief and messy stint as Clark's teammate in Indiana before forcing her way out of town, and the volatility wasn't exactly surprising.
"Enforcer" Fever guard Sophie Cunningham didn't sit and watch her superstar get pushed around.
Before the Clark-Bonner scene, Cunningham stepped into the confrontation and pointed directly at Bonner, who continued barking at officials as teammates tried to pull her away.
Cameras later caught Cunningham laughing as Bonner's meltdown escalated, and both players were hit with technical fouls.
Mercury star and Bonner's girlfriend Alyssa Thomas rushed in to defend Bonner. Indiana forward Myisha Hines-Allen jumped into the scrum.
The refs started handing out technical fouls like free samples, slapping Thomas and Hines-Allen with a double technical.
Seconds later, Hines-Allen decided she was done talking and shoved Bonner. Because she had already been assessed a technical foul moments earlier, the shove counted as her second of the night, earning an automatic ejection.
CAITLIN CLARK GETS POKED IN EYE, SHOVED TO GROUND IN SKIRMISH WITH SUN PLAYERS
All the whistles, reviews and ejections turned the final period into an absolute marathon. The fourth quarter alone stretched to 44 minutes.
When asked about the chippy ending, Clark kept her focus on the officiating and the game's stop-and-start pace.
"Obviously I appreciate the refs just calling the fouls," Clark said.
She also joked that the game might be on record for the longest fourth quarter in WNBA history.
Despite the chaos threatening to derail Indiana's momentum, Clark made sure the Fever stayed focused on the only thing that mattered.
"Just stay focused on the goals," Clark added. "That's to win the game."
WNBA rivalries and personalities ... Monday night's showdown delivered plenty of both.
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Terrifying scene unfolds as metal cabana frame crashes into packed casino pool area
A powerful wind gust sent a metal cabana frame crashing into a crowded pool area at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino on Saturday evening, injuring five people.
The incident unfolded at the DAER Club, a rooftop entertainment venue at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida, according to reports.
Strong winds struck an outdoor section of the venue, causing the structure to partially collapse.
DISNEY WORLD GUESTS SHAKEN AS RARE EARTHQUAKE NEAR CUBA JOLTS FLORIDA
Five people were transported to Memorial Regional Hospital with non-life-threatening injuries, reports noted.
Videos shared online showed guests and employees rushing to help those trapped beneath the fallen structure, with several people lifting sections of the metal frame before first responders arrived.
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The cabana frame was lifted by strong winds before crashing into an area occupied by guests near the resort's pool deck.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino for comment.
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One bystander who recorded the aftermath said he had been standing near the area moments before the incident occurred.
In a social media post, the witness said he walked away shortly before the structure came down, and later described feeling shocked by how narrowly he avoided being caught underneath it.
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"I am still in shock. I keep thinking that I was supposed to be standing there, but for some reason I moved away at the last moment," the user wrote.
Fox News Digital previously reported on another weather-related accident in which a New Jersey lifeguard was impaled by a beach umbrella that became airborne during windy conditions.
The incident occurred at Asbury Park's 3rd Avenue Beach in June 2025. First responders found the woman conscious and alert after an umbrella stake pierced her shoulder.
Fire officials later said the lifeguard remained awake throughout the ordeal and was transported to a nearby hospital for treatment.
The incident prompted renewed warnings about securing outdoor equipment during windy conditions, particularly at beaches and other open-air recreation areas.
Stepheny Price of Fox News Digital contributed reporting.
Austin Metcalf's father accuses media pundits of trying to monetize his son's death 'for clicks'
Jeff Metcalf, the father of slain 17-year-old Austin Metcalf, accused some pundits of attempting to "monetize" his son’s death and revealed whether convicted killer Karmelo Anthony’s family has ever apologized.
"They're looking for their 15 minutes of fame, or their clickbait or their clicks. They're just looking to monetize the death of my son," Metcalf told "The Will Cain Show" on Monday.
His comments come as newly released evidence paints a clearer picture of the moments leading up to and following the fatal 2025 stabbing incident.
In police body camera footage from the day of the stabbing, when an officer refers to Anthony as the "alleged suspect" while placing him in handcuffs, Anthony replies, "I’m not alleged. I did it."
TEXAS TRACK MEET STABBING SUSPECT TOLD RESPONDING OFFICER HE 'DID IT': DOCS
Metcalf responded to comments made by "The View" co-host Sunny Hostin earlier Monday, when she said she could not understand why Anthony’s case was not determined to be self-defense.
"I really wish they wouldn't speak about it at all because one, if that woman said that, she has no idea about the facts of the case, but she wants to spew her public opinion on a platform that reaches millions of people every day," he said.
"She is completely wrong," he added, offering to join "The View" to discuss his son’s murder.
The murder trial of Austin Metcalf evolved into a national discussion of race, with many media personalities backing the defense’s assertion that Anthony acted in self-defense when he stabbed 17-year-old Metcalf at a track meet in April 2025.
Anthony was convicted of first-degree murder earlier this month and sentenced to 35 years in prison.
Jeff Metcalf criticized those who politicized his son’s murder or framed it through a racial lens, saying he never wanted that to happen.
"The two things I said on one of the first interviews I ever did was, ‘Please don't make this about race, please don't politicize it,’" he said. "But they chose to do both."
The elder Metcalf expressed disappointment that the case became so focused on race, telling host Will Cain that skin color is an irrelevant factor in his son’s murder.
"We don't see color. So, all I see is character in people. I don't care what color you are," the father said. "I want to judge you on how you treat people."
Metcalf slightly empathized with his son’s killer while discussing how Anthony’s parents left him alone in the courtroom during a sensitive time during the trial.
"As soon as the verdict was read, he was guilty, his family and some other advocates left the courtroom and turned in their badges," he told Fox News.
"They weren't there for the sentencing, and they were not there for victim impact statements. They left that poor child up there by himself."
Metcalf also revealed whether Anthony’s family has ever reached out to apologize.
"Have you ever spoken to the Anthony's?" Cain asked.
"No," Metcalf responded.
"No apology, no remorse?" Cain replied.
"Nothing," Metcalf said.
The father also reflected on his son Austin’s memory, remembering him as a "God-fearing" leader more than one year after his death.
"He had compassion. He showed love," he explained. "He always helped. Always was helping his teammates, always helping the younger kids from middle school who were transitioning to high school football. He would go and talk to them and tell them what to expect. He would coach them in the weight room."
"I mean, this is a trauma that you carry the rest of your life."
Former Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer heads back to Mexico as MLB continues to shut him out
Trevor Bauer is heading back to Mexico ... another reminder that no matter how well he pitches, Major League Baseball remains unwilling to welcome him back.
After dominating the Atlantic League with the Long Island Ducks, where he broke franchise strikeout records and threw a seven-inning no-hitter, the 35-year-old right-hander is heading back to Mexico: officially re-signed with the Diablos Rojos.
Bauer is returning to the club where he went 10-0 during a dominant 2024 run, not because he lacks options on the mound, but because he has run out of willing suitors in the majors.
In seven starts for the Flock, Bauer posted a stellar 5-1 record with a 2.36 ERA, racking up 66 strikeouts against just seven walks in 42 innings.
TREVOR BAUER THROWS NO-HITTER FOR LONG ISLAND DUCKS IN JUST SECOND US START SINCE 2021
The 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner isn't playing south of the border due to a decline in talent.
Bauer remains in professional exile following a league suspension that permanently altered the trajectory of his career.
Commissioner Rob Manfred originally issued Bauer an unprecedented 324-game suspension, which an independent arbitrator later reduced to 192 games.
As a result, Bauer forfeited roughly $37.5 million of his $102 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers eventually released him anyway, choosing to pay out the remainder of the deal rather than keep him on the roster.
The firestorm began with allegations made by Lindsey Hill. While media outlets heavily covered the initial accusations, the public narrative shifted dramatically when explosive evidence came to light.
Bauer was never charged with a crime, and text messages later surfaced showing Hill explicitly discussing plans to target a wealthy athlete for financial gain.
Their legal dispute ended in a zero-dollar settlement, with neither side paying the other.
Despite the legal resolution, Bauer's path back to Major League Baseball remains blocked.
Major-league teams continue to hand crucial innings to struggling starters while insisting to fan bases they are doing everything possible to win.
The disconnect has become impossible to ignore.
Bauer has spent the last several years pitching his way back into the conversation. He has won in Japan, dominated in Mexico, rebuilt his public image through his digital platforms and just finished a strong showcase on Long Island.
So Bauer heads back to Mexico City, continuing a journey that has taken him everywhere except the bigs.
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Prominent businessman learns fate in boat crash case that killed teen, maimed another
Miami real estate developer George Pino was found not guilty in connection with a boat crash off Boca Chita Key in Biscayne Bay in September 2022 that killed one teenager and left another with permanent disabilities.
The verdict was handed down on Monday acquitting Pino, 55, who was charged with second-degree manslaughter and vessel homicide for the crash that killed 17-year-old Lucy Fernandez and left another teen, Katy Puig, now 21, with life-changing injuries, according to NBC 6.
The verdict comes after an emotional eight days of testimony in South Florida.
During closing arguments, prosecutors argued that Pino was reckless when he crashed his boat into a channel marker during Labor Day weekend in 2022, while the defense maintained that the collision was an accident.
FLORIDA MEN CHARGED IN FATAL BOATING HIT-AND-RUN OF 15-YEAR-OLD BALLERINA
"We are grateful to the jurors for their careful consideration of the evidence and for reaching a just verdict," lead defense attorney Howard Srebnick said in a statement after the verdict, according to the outlet. "From the beginning, we have maintained that the events of September 4, 2022, were a tragic accident, not a crime. The testimony presented at trial—including unrebutted accounts from eyewitnesses who saw no signs of impairment—confirmed that Mr. Pino was not under the influence, was not operating the vessel recklessly, and that he did everything he could to protect his passengers after the accident."
Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez-Rundle, who prosecuted the case, said she was disappointed with the verdict but accepts the jury's decision.
"While everyone in our community and beyond recognizes the tragedy surrounding the Labor Day 2022 boating death of Lucy Fernandez and the permanent disabling of Katy Puig, my prosecutors and I have believed that the totality of George Pino's actions on the waters of Biscayne Bay were reckless and constituted a crime as defined by Florida's criminal statutes," she said in a statement.
"Sadly, I know that this verdict brings no comfort to the Fernandez and Puig families who forever must live with the tragedy of what happened. In a case like this, there are no winners or losers," she added. "Mr. Pino must live with what he did, while the Fernandez and Puig families will grapple with the consequences of his actions."
On Sept. 4, 2022, Pino and his wife hosted a birthday celebration for their daughter on their boat.
Investigators said Pino was operating the family's 29-foot boat as it returned to the dock when it hit a channel marker near Boca Chita Key. Pino told investigators that another boat had passed by and created a large wake. He said he turned to check on the teenagers after the wake, which caused him to collide with the marker.
The impact of the crash caused everyone on board to fall overboard and into the water. The crash also resulted in a large hole in the side of the vessel.
Eleven of the 14 passengers were injured, including six who were transported to a hospital. Fernandez later died from her injuries and Puig suffered a traumatic brain injury that left her with a lifetime of disabilities.
After questionable remarks from star Milly Alcock, new tracking shows 'Supergirl' on track for $200M loss
If there's one thing that modern Hollywood specializes in, it's unforced errors.
There are dozens of examples of major studio properties that had what appeared to be an easy path to profitability. "The Marvels" was the continuation of the all-powerful Marvel Cinematic Universe, a follow-up to a wildly successful franchise. New release "The Mandalorian and Grogu" was part of the expanded Star Wars universe. The most recent "Superman" from James Gunn was a reboot of one of the most popular comic book characters in history, with creative talent behind it that had already delivered mega-hits like "The Guardians of the Galaxy."
Instead, those movies were financial disappointments, to one degree or another. All thanks to predictable mistakes from the entertainment industry. "The Marvels" came after Marvel Studios shot its brand in the foot by focusing too much on unpopular characters to check desired boxes. It flopped, dramatically. "The Mandalorian and Grogu" is set to lose Disney around $100 million because they degraded the Star Wars brand so successfully over the years. "Snow White" was another monumental flop after actress Rachel Zegler spent the entire press campaign undermining it. "Superman," while hardly a flop, disappointed at the box office after Gunn made bizarre comments about the film's supposed political message. Even though the film had no specific political focus.
But apparently bizarre comments and financial failures are what the James Gunn era at DC Studios is all about. Because the latest pre-release tracking data on this weekend's "Supergirl" release has gone from disastrously bad to monumental failure. And the film's star, Milly Alcock, is sure to shoulder some of the blame.
Alcock, as a reminder, implied in a March interview that she'd been receiving criticism for being a woman starring as a...female superhero. Which makes little sense.
"It definitely made me aware that simply existing as a woman in that space is something that people comment on," she told Vanity Fair. "We have become very comfortable having this weird ownership of women’s bodies. I can’t really stop them. I can only be myself."
When reaction to those remarks was generally negative, Alcock got defensive and doubled down.
"I didn’t even say ‘men’ — I said ‘people!’" she said in a profile for Variety. "And they got so angry. I was like, ‘You’re proving my point. You’re proving my point!’"
Apparently unaware that those remarks then proved she had, in fact, been referring to unknown male fans who supposedly criticized her for playing "Supergirl." But that wasn't the only odd statement she made during that portion of the press tour.
Alcock said much of the criticism came from those who said they were a "dad" or "Christian." Which apparently disqualifies them from having an opinion about a movie or casting decision. Or means that any comments are supposedly hypocritical.
"And it’s from a lot of people whose profiles have no photo, who are burner accounts," Alcock said. "Or someone’s name and then ‘Dad of four, Christian,’ which is hilarious to me."
As if that wasn't enough, just a few days ago, Alcock addressed the sexuality of the "Supergirl" character in a response to a question from Queerly Radio. When the host asked whether that was something Alcock had "explored" her character's supposed "queerness" in preparing for the role, she answered, "It wasn't, but in honor of 'Pride month,' as I'm getting all these questions...I don't know. I think that what makes this film beautiful is that it's not centered around a man, it's not centered around love at all. I don't really know. I don't know. I don't know. She probably goes both ways."
It's like watching the "Snow White" debacle unfold again, years later.
Relatedly, as the film's release on June 26 rapidly approaches, there's new box office tracking data out. In May, Box Office Theory estimates said that "Supergirl" could reach as high as $65 million in its opening weekend. Even that would have been a disappointment, given the film's estimated $250 million cost between production and marketing. With the 50/50 revenue breakdown between studios and movie theaters, a $250 million movie generally needs to reach $500 million globally to break even. And in fact, original marketing estimates may have been low, considering a new report says the film received a $100 million "promo partner" campaign, the largest ever for DC.
As a point of comparison, "Superman" opened to $125 million domestically and topped out at $618 million worldwide. Half that first weekend gross would make it nearly impossible to reach $500 million, and even $400 million would be unlikely, at best.
Well, things have only gotten worse since. Much, much worse.
In their latest update, Box Office Theory has now put the range of weekend grosses for "Supergirl" at between $39-51 million. That's a decrease of $8-14 million from the previous estimates. And it spells disaster for Hollywood and DC Studios.
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Taking the midway point of those numbers, an opening weekend of $45 million would be a monumental failure. Big-budget films typically bring in around 40-45% of their total gross in the first weekend. Particularly in the busy summer season where high-profile releases hit theaters each week. That implies a total domestic gross in the $100-108 million range. Even if it doubles that total in international markets, a $300 million total would mean around $200 million in losses for Warner Bros. and DC Studios.
"Supergirl" was likely never going to be a huge hit for DC. It's a character with little general fan interest, and Gunn failed to build buzz and momentum for his new version of an "expanded universe" in the DC Studios world with "Superman."
But they could have maximized fan interest and their return on investment with better story ideas, marketing and public relations. The film's trailer looked unoriginal and uninteresting. Alcock has little-to-no name recognition, and instead of building up a positive profile of herself and the movie, has come across as unlikable and divisive in the press tour.
This isn't rocket science. Don't alienate potential customers by unnecessarily making them the enemy. Don't make yourself the center of the story, when it should be the movie and its qualities. That can't guarantee financial success, but it won't hurt box office either. Instead, Alcock has done the opposite. She's made everything about her, her views and ideology. That's her choice, but she's then going to shoulder some of the blame when it fails. And boy oh boy, does this movie look like it's going to fail.